Rugby Union
The Gain Line Don’t Lie: Why NZ Rugby has a Development problem, not a Coaching one.
First, we need to decide what the hell we actually are.
by Joey Nanai I 20th February 2026
For years New Zealand rugby has sold itself on flair, skill, tempo and creativity. When it worked, it was bloody marvellous. We moved the ball, we suffocated teams with pace, we made the game look easy. But the modern game has shifted. If we want to win consistently again, not just look good in patches, dominance has to come first. Not vibes. Not flair. Not marketing spin. Collision dominance.
At the highest level the game is brutally simple. If you are winning the gain line your systems look genius. If you are losing it no tactical masterstroke saves you. You can draw up the most beautiful shape in world rugby and it still will not mean a damn thing if your tight five is going backwards.
South Africa figured that out. They built size. Power. Set piece. Pressure. They did not build pretty. They built punishment. Everything else came after that. We cannot keep feeding ourselves the bullshit that the old formula alone will magically carry us. That era is done.
Second, stop the panic hiring.
Changing coaches mid cycle without a succession plan is not ruthless. It is sloppy. It is emotional. It is amateur bullshit dressed up as decisiveness. Firing someone to look tough without having the next move locked in is not bold. It is chicken shit leadership.
Pick one head coach. Give him full authority. Back him properly for four years. Remove the noise. No co leaders. No blurred power structures. No confusion about who is accountable. One voice. One direction. One standard.
Elite organisations do not jerk the wheel every time the wind shifts. They commit and execute. Instability at the top trickles down. Players feel it. Assistants feel it. The public feels it. You cannot build dominance on indecision and then act surprised when results wobble. That is bullshit thinking.
The Cam Schuster Podcast
Third, fix the engine.
The tight five becomes priority number one. That is where this starts. For too long we leaned into skill development and assumed physical parity would hold. It has not. And pretending otherwise is just self-soothing bullshit.
We need national strength and conditioning alignment across schools, academies, provinces, and Super Rugby. Shared metrics. Shared data. Shared benchmarks. Gain line success tracked from schoolboy rugby upward. Collision dominance is measured, not guessed.
If academies are not hitting physical standards such as lean mass targets, power outputs, and scrum metrics, then funding conversations happen. It is not personal. It is not political. It is performance based. You do not get rewarded for participation. You get rewarded for producing test-ready bodies. Anything less is bureaucratic bullshit.
We do not lack talent. We lack forward depth with the physical profile to dominate consistently at Test level. That is a development issue. Not a scapegoat for the coach issue. Blaming the coach alone is convenient. It is also bullshit.
Fourth, increase brutality exposure.
Our players are not getting enough of it domestically. You cannot simulate Test intensity by playing each other in a closed loop all year and then act shocked when you get punched in the mouth in Pretoria.
Super Rugby is competitive. It is not consistently replicating the collision and pressure environment you face against the Springboks in South Africa. Pretending it does is bullshit.
We need deliberate exposure to hostile physical environments. Tours. Cross hemisphere competition. Structured blocks that force players to adapt under real pressure.
Comfort breeds technical sharpness. Discomfort breeds resilience. Right now we have polish. We need edge. Skill without edge at Test level is decorative bullshit.
Fifth, fix U20s and schools.
If we are not winning at that level it is not just a bad season. It is a warning light flashing.
The World Rugby Under 20 Championship is often a five year preview of your Test side. If that pipeline is not producing dominant forwards and leaders then do not act shocked when the senior side struggles physically.
Invest early. Centralise elite strength and conditioning at secondary level. Identify and retain the big athletes before league takes them. Make the pathway clear and attractive. Compete for talent instead of whining about losing it. Excuses about player drain are just more bullshit if you are not matching it structurally.
When Australia beats our schools convincingly treat it as data. Adapt. Adjust. Improve. Denial is bullshit. Emotion is bullshit. Data is not. Lastly, governance needs to grow up.
You do not fire a coach without a succession plan. That is not tough. That is careless. Elite organisations think long term. They align vertically from grassroots to Test level. They do not react emotionally to headlines or talkback radio. Reactionary governance is corporate bullshit that weakens brands.
This is not about defending one coach or crucifying another. It is about recognising the real issue. I am not convinced this is a coaching crisis. I think it is a development dip in forwards and overall physical profile. A structural recalibration moment. Coaches matter. Leadership matters. But leadership cannot compensate for a systemic physical deficit at the highest level. Believing it can is bullshit.
You can change coaches all you want. Debate tactics all you want. Shuffle assistants all you want. Until we rebuild the engine, the tight five depth, the collision dominance, the pathway alignment, the outcome against the very best will not fundamentally change.
South Africa will not beat us because they are tactically smarter. They will beat us at the gain line. And the gain line does not care about your feelings, your nostalgia, or your bullshit. Now here is my five cents pick if we are serious.
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Hire Jamie Joseph.
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Give him full authority.
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No co coaches.
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No blurred titles.
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Back him publicly for four years.
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Remove any assistant who does not align.
Simple. Clear. Ruthless. That is how you rebuild something that used to be bloody marvellous instead of managing decline like a bunch of chicken shit caretakers. Decide what we are. Build for it. Back it. Or keep arguing about the coach while we get march backwards.